The hottest machine replacement leads to employmen

2022-09-19
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Where is the future of the labor market when machine replacement leads to employment challenges

as the core driving force of the new round of industrial reform, artificial intelligence will profoundly change the way of human production and life, and promote the overall leap of social productivity. At the same time, the impact of the wide application of artificial intelligence on the job market has also aroused great concern and concern in society

at present, the accelerated development of artificial intelligence in the world has attracted great attention from all countries. Whether it is a simple mechanical action or a complex perceptual task, the strength of artificial intelligence is commendable. Moreover, with the development of machine learning, big data and computing power, the efficiency and accuracy of AI systems in processing tasks will also be improved

the concern caused by this is not unreasonable. The breakthrough of artificial intelligence means that all kinds of jobs are in danger, and the threat of technical unemployment is imminent. Is it exaggerated or is it true? When machine replacement impacts the labor market, what is the biggest threat

At present, artificial intelligence has become a new engine for the future scientific and technological revolution and industrial change, and drives and promotes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Due to the wear and tear of machinery, artificial intelligence has a wide range of applications, from industrial agriculture to financial education, from digital government to intelligent transportation, and then to judicial, medical and retail services. The impact of artificial intelligence on employment has become more and more obvious

from the perspective of technology, benefiting from the development of computer capabilities, the increasing availability of data, the development and improvement of machine learning and other algorithms, and the future progress of key technologies such as artificial intelligence are almost absolute. Machine replacement is not only continuous tense, but also future tense. This directly impacts the labor market and brings a new wave of Employment anxiety

in fact, since the first industrial revolution, from mechanical looms to internal combustion engines to the first computers, the emergence of new technologies has always caused people to panic about being replaced by machines. During the two industrial revolutions from 1820 to 1913, the share of American labor employed in the agricultural sector fell from 70% to 27.5%, and is currently less than 2%

many developing countries are also experiencing similar changes, even faster structural transformation. According to the international labor organization, the proportion of agricultural employment in China fell from 80.8% in 1970 to 28.3% in 2015

in the face of the rise of artificial intelligence technology in the fourth industrial revolution, relevant research institutions in the United States released a report in December 2016 that the number of jobs replaced by artificial intelligence technology will rise from the current 9% to 47% in the next 10 to 20 years

according to the report of McKinsey Global Institute, automation and artificial intelligence are expected to replace 49% of paid jobs in the world by 2055, with India and China likely to be the most affected. McKinsey Global Research predicts that 51% of the jobs in China have automation potential, which will have an impact on the equivalent of 394million full-time human hours

from the specific content of AI replacing employment, not only the vast majority of standardized and programmed labor can be completed by robots, but even non standardized labor will be impacted in the field of AI technology

as Marx pointed out, the emergence of means of labor as a machine immediately became a competitor of workers themselves. Oxford University professors carlbenediktfrey and born once predicted in their joint article that in the next two decades, about 47% of American employees will have weak resistance to automation technology

in other words, the white-collar class will also be similarly impacted as the blue collar class. In accounting, finance, education, medical and other industries, a large number of jobs will change their working mode with the development of artificial intelligence technology. Human beings are responsible for the parts that require high skills, creativity and flexibility, while robots use their advantages in speed, accuracy, sustainability and other aspects to be responsible for repetitive work

although the impact on the white-collar class is not equivalent to complete replacement, the addition of artificial intelligence is bound to reduce more employment opportunities, so that the labor market has weak resistance to automation technology

at the same time, in the face of the booming of artificial intelligence, in a few frontier innovation fields such as high-end R & D, the preference for employment choice of highly skilled labor force still continues. This has led to an obvious polarization trend in the employment of high skilled and low skilled labor: the employment demand for high skilled labor has increased significantly; It intensifies the de skilled trend of low skilled labor in the field of general production

according to MIT research, researchers used the labor market data of the United States from 1990 to 2007 to analyze the impact of the use of robots or automated equipment on employment and work. The results show that the proportion of robots in the total labor force in the U.S. labor market will be increased by 1%, and the experimental data of microcomputer controlled test will be very comprehensive, resulting in the reduction of employment by 1.8% - 3.4%. Not only that, it also reduced the wages of workers by an average of 2.5% 5%. The threat of technical unemployment is imminent

machine replacement creates future employment

of course, the panic about automation is not the first time in human history. Since the beginning of modern economic growth, people have periodically suffered from the strong panic of being replaced by machines. For hundreds of years, this concern has always proved to be a false alarm. Despite the continuous technological progress over the years, new human work needs will always be generated, which is enough to avoid a large number of permanent unemployed people

for example, in the past, there were special legal workers engaged in the retrieval of legal documents. However, since the introduction of software that can analyze and retrieve massive legal documents, the time cost has decreased significantly and the demand has increased significantly, so the employment of legal workers has increased instead of decreased (from 2000 to 2013, the employment of this position increased by 1.1% per year)

for another example, the emergence of ATMs has caused a large number of layoffs of bank employees. From 1988 to 2004, the number of employees in branches of each bank in the United States decreased from 20 to 13 on average. However, the cost of operating each branch is reduced, which instead allows the bank to have enough funds to open more branches to meet the needs of customers. As a result, the number of bank branches in American cities increased by 43% between 1988 and 2004, and the overall number of bank employees also increased

past history shows that technological innovation has improved workers' productivity, created new products and markets, and further created new employment opportunities in the economy. Then, for AI, the law of history may repeat itself. In the long run, AI is creating more jobs by reducing costs and driving industrial scale expansion and structural upgrading

Deloitte has found that technological progress is a machine to create employment by analyzing the relationship between technological progress and employment in Britain Since 1871. Because technological progress has increased consumers' demand for goods by reducing production costs and prices, thereby expanding the total social demand, driving the expansion of industrial scale and structural upgrading, and creating more jobs

from the perspective of the new employment space opened up by AI, the first mode of AI changing the economy is to create new products through new technologies, realize new functions, and drive new consumer demand in the market, so as to directly create a number of emerging industries and drive the linear growth of the intelligent industry

according to the research of China Institute of electronics, each robot can drive at least four types of jobs, such as robot research and development, production, supporting services, quality management, sales and other jobs

at present, the development of artificial intelligence is driven by big data as the mainstream mode. In the process of intelligent upgrading in traditional industries, with the landing and application of a large number of intelligent projects, not only a large number of data scientists, Algorithm Engineers and other positions are required, but also because a large number of manual operations are still required in data processing, the demand for ordinary data processing personnel such as data cleaning, data calibration and data integration will also increase significantly

moreover, AI will also drive the linear growth of employment in the intelligent industrial chain. The great development of intelligence led by artificial intelligence will also drive the development of relevant industrial chains and open up the upstream and downstream job markets

in addition, with the enrichment of material products and the improvement of people's quality of life, people's demand for high-quality services and spiritual consumer products will continue to expand, and the demand for high-end personalized services will gradually rise, which will create a large number of new service industry jobs. McKinsey believes that by 2030, the development of high-level education and health care will create 50million-80million new job demand in the world

from the perspective of job skills, simple repetitive labor will be more replaced by carbon fiber, which is naturally conductive, and a large number of high-quality skilled jobs will be created Internal material: made of stainless steel. This also means that although AI is driving the expansion of industrial scale and structural upgrading to create more jobs, in the short term, the employment impact brought by AI is still severe in the context of the low and medium skilled labor market

responding to the challenges of the machine replacement era

the development of artificial intelligence brings not only changes in one or several industries, but also profound changes in the production mode and consumption mode of the whole economy and society, and further has a great impact on employment

of course, based on the multi-level and phased development of artificial intelligence technology, the replacement of artificial intelligence for employment will also be a gradual process, and solving and coordinating the short-term and long-term impact of artificial intelligence on employment is the key to dealing with machine replacement at present and in the future

first of all, we should actively deal with the short-term or local challenges brought by the application of new AI technologies to employment, and we need to formulate targeted measures to buffer the negative impact of AI on employment. For example, grasp the new round of industrial development opportunities brought by artificial intelligence, expand the emerging industries of artificial intelligence, create new jobs in related fields with the help of artificial intelligence technology, and give full play to the positive driving role of artificial intelligence in employment

how to deal with the social problems of artificial intelligence requires the creativity of the market. Only the right incentive mechanism and the right talents can hedge the huge impact of artificial intelligence on the job market. Since China's reform and opening up, the first important thing is to make thousands of entrepreneurs emerge. On the basis that thousands of entrepreneurs have promoted economic growth, they have promoted the government to build roads and bridges, and then further helped the development of enterprises

secondly, we should attach great importance to the substitution risks that new technologies may bring to traditional jobs, and focus on the transfer and reemployment of employees in middle-end jobs. In fact, how much AI destroys, creates and creates new jobs is not entirely determined by technology, and institutions also play a decisive role. In the environment of rapid technological change, how much ability and whether it can flexibly help individuals and enterprises creatively create new job opportunities are all determined by the system

for example, can a person who loses his job change his ability? How to help them transform their abilities? These are also issues that the system needs to consider. The government should give sufficient support to the establishment of non-governmental organizations for the loss of

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